Rethinking Pharma Demand & Gross to Net Forecasting: A Webinar Recap

Traditional forecasting methods—reliant on disconnected spreadsheets and fragmented data sources—often lead to version control issues, siloed insights, and missed opportunities. GTN forecasting is frequently split across brands and channels, while demand forecasting varies by product type and data source, making it difficult to see the full picture or act quickly. Whether you are building the demand forecast or the Gross to Net (GTN) Channel Forecast, one theme remains consistent: too many spreadsheets, too many silos.

• Demand forecasting is often fragmented by product type, requiring different datasets (e.g., syndicated data vs. patient-level data) and forecasting tools.

• GTN forecasting faces its own maze of spreadsheets—often separated by brand, channel, or payer—making end-to-end visibility and impact analysis nearly impossible.

The challenge is persistent data hunting and gathering, maintaining multiple models, and reconciling different spreadsheet versions.

Bringing demand and GTN together on a common platform

The improvement we’re observing across manufacturers is being achieved when they move off disconnected tools and into a common, connected EPM platform. Here’s how it transforms the forecasting process:

1. Automated data integration: Say goodbye to hunting through data files and reports to piece together your inputs. With a centralized data hub, ERP, syndicated, and manual data feeds can all flow automatically into models—freeing up analysts to actually analyze.

2. Smarter statistical forecasting: Statistical models (like best-fit algorithms, moving averages, and growth curves) can run across all brands and cycles. Analysts can override algorithm selections and even tailor statistical forecasting methods to suit their product or channel needs.

3. Market event modeling: No more guessing how upcoming events will impact volume. The Market Event Library allows teams to input known events (like competitor launches, access changes and live shifts), define impact curves, and see how forecasts adjust—on both the demand and GTN sides.

Market events are:

• Flexible (customizable curves, parameters, and event types)

• Reusable (carry over from one forecast cycle to the next)

• Impactful (you see pre-event vs. post-event volumes in real-time)

4. Connected planning across business functions: When demand planning and GTN are built on the same platform, GTN teams can pull in demand forecasts with a simple dropdown—no integrations required. This enables seamless scenario planning across sales, finance, access, and supply chain.

GTN-specific capabilities that drive value

The team walked through GTN forecasting capabilities that enable better accuracy and planning, including:

• Customer-level volume forecasting: Analysts can select the best-fit methodology (trend, moving average, flat, etc.) by payer and time period with flexible parameters and overrides.

• Price-accessible planning: Changes to WAC or discount terms flow instantly throughout the forecast, reflecting cross-segment impacts and the updated net revenue.

• Detailed channel discount structures: Account for bona fide vs. non-bona fide fees, price protection terms, and government pricing projections (e.g., AMP, URA, FSS, ASP).

• Customer event planning: A parallel event library enables forecasting access changes at the payer level, tied to individual customers.

• Comparative analytics and scenario planning: Easily compare versions, see variances, and drill down to the brand or customer level—all within a single model.

Real-time what-if analysis

Users can duplicate an entire forecast cycle in seconds, run what-if scenarios—such as a new competitor launch or contract renegotiation—and instantly view the cascading impacts on volume, pricing, and net revenue. All analysis happens within the platform—no exports, no version control challenges—just live, connected insights that support confident, data-driven decision-making.

Unlocking smarter forecasting with enterprise-wide planning

EPM tools, like Anaplan, don’t just improve individual forecasts—they enable enterprise-wide planning. When you connect demand, GTN, finance, and supply chain on a single platform:

• Forecasts become faster, smarter, and more reliable

• Teams stay aligned across business functions

• Decisions are grounded in real-time data, not gut feel

By shifting to a unified EPM platform, pharma manufacturers are overcoming these challenges with centralized data integration, automated statistical forecasting, and real-time market event modeling. The team demonstrated how connecting demand and GTN forecasts enables seamless collaboration across finance, sales, market access, and supply chain—reducing manual work, improving accuracy, and driving smarter, enterprise-wide decisions.

Watch the full webinar replay here to see the live demo and real-world examples.